166 Red Bird Ln · Drakes Branch, VA 23967

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2000 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to quiet country living in Saxe, Virginia. This fully renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 3 acres and feels brand new from the moment you walk through the door. Inside, you'll notice it right away. Bright finishes, tons of natural light, and a crisp, clean look that makes the whole place feel fresh and modern. The layout just works. Spacious bedrooms, a primary suite with two walk-in closets, and multiple spots to gather with both a dining area and a sunny breakfast nook. If you've got plants, bring them. They're about to thrive here. Step outside and you've got room to breathe. Three acres gives you privacy without feeling isolated. Located in Charlotte County, Virginia, you'r

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking on gravel; no garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story living (above-grade finished area 1,536 square feet)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Has a view; 3-acre lot; Zoned AG

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Ceiling fans for additional cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-329/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#464 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Charlotte County Public School District (rural): math 51% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 131 in VA (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bacon District Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 169 students, 85% FRL); Central Middle (math 49% / reading 69%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 370 students, 85% FRL); Randolph-Henry High (math 47% / reading 82%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 478 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 48% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Charlotte County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,777 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $73,354
• Equity at exit: $143,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $213,894
• Equity at exit: $279,202

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23967

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $194,159

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $29	+0% $-27	+5% $-84	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-84	+0% $-27	+5% $29	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $23	base $-27	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $199,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract 1122-char remark
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $199,000 Active 1122-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,191/yr (+$99/mo · 270.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$931
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100750
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,822
• Composite: 50.88/100
• National rank: #1794
• State rank: #59 of 131 in VA

Livability — Drakes Branch

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #19827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,392

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,224 people
• By 2030: 10,663 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 9,445 · -15.8%
• By 2050: 8,271 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 5,985 · -46.7%
• By 2100: 3,716 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 29% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.4% · R 66.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.46%
• Current HPI: 112.6816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — SPLLAR
• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $201,900 SPLLAR
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — SPLLAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $199,000 SPLLAR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.