3952 Blueberry Ln

St. James City, FL 33956

$339,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 251 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$1,059
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-871/mo
• Annual: $-10,457/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-871 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (45.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $340k implies a 608% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.