3952 Blueberry Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$339,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 251 Days on market

Built 2003 5,445 sqft lot Est $413k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HOW ABOUT 116FT OF DEEP WATER SAILBOAT ACCESS?? ALONG WITH 83FT OF ROAD FRONTAGE AND PARKING FOR ALL YOUR TOYS. That's what we have here. Along with that you will get a 2bd 2ba manufactured home NOT A MOBILE. The home has oversized windows & has a very open airy feeling. The home was built for the sunroom under the same roof. Wonderful views across the Cherry canal that will never change. There are 2 different gulf access routes which are depicted on the virtual tour that you must view for your boating pleasure. Carport & workshop under roof--more than ample parking for motorhome or boat trailer pus a couple cars. This home comes turnkey furnished so just bring your suitcase. Ze

Key facts

• Carport and workshop
• Ample parking
• Gulf access routes

Tags

• DEEP WATER SAILBOAT ACCESS
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• SUNROOM UNDER THE SAME ROOF
• GULF ACCESS ROUTES
• CARPORT AND WORKSHOP
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee; Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport; Carport (1 space); RV access/parking; Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story modular/prefab home; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Entry at level 1; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Built with modular/prefab construction; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Room for pool; Storage; Outbuilding; Paved road access; Cul-de-sac lot; Irregular, oversized lot; Waterfront with canal access, intersecting canal, mangroves, navigable water and seawall; North exposure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Bedroom on main level; Kitchen island; Living/Dining room; Main level primary; Shower only with separate shower; Cable TV; Window coverings; Window treatments; Workshop; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-871 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (45.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $340k implies a 608% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,957 (45.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $412,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3073 Sloop Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	4mo	$430,000	$430	81
3864 Royal Palm Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	14mo	$250,000	$260	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-110,240
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-166,080
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,892/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,597

Max offer price $185,957

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-679	-5% $-775	+0% $-871	+5% $-968	+10% $-1,064
Rent	-10% $-1,068	-5% $-970	+0% $-871	+5% $-773	+10% $-674
Rate	-1.0pp $-700	-0.5pp $-785	base $-871	+0.5pp $-960	+1.0pp $-1,049

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.20mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.30mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	24d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   price $339,900
3. 2026-05-07
   price $345,900
4. 2026-04-21
   price $349,900
5. 2026-03-31
   price $359,900
6. 2026-03-09
   price $369,900
7. 2026-02-14
   price $379,900
8. 2026-01-22
   price $390,000
9. 2025-09-10
   listed $399,900 Active
10. 2025-08-31
    historical
11. 2025-06-01
    price $395,000
12. 2025-05-06
    price $405,000
13. 2025-04-01
    price $415,000
14. 2025-03-23
    price $429,900
15. 2025-03-06
    price $439,900
16. 2024-11-07
    price $449,000
17. 2024-11-07
    price $459,000
18. 2024-10-18
    listed $470,000 Active
19. 2024-09-01
    historical
20. 2024-06-30
    price $515,000
21. 2024-06-04
    price $525,000
22. 2024-05-15
    price $540,000
23. 2024-05-01
    listed $580,000 Active
24. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 1988-03-22
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,892 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,892 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,892
• − Insurance: −$6,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$16,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,960
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+871.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $339,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $345,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $349,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $359,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $369,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $379,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $390,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $395,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $405,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $415,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $429,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $439,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $449,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $459,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed $470,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-06-30 Price Changed $515,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $525,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $540,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $580,000 FORTMLS
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,892 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.