631 Bailey Dr #2 Dr

Mansfield, OH 44904

$65,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,564/yr
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.57%
• DSCR: 2.36
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in OH, #3,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-, employment F.
• Lexington Local (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #113 of 656 in OH (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #116 of 1,584 statewide, top 9%, 391 students, 23% FRL); Eastern Elementary School (math 74% / reading 73%, grade A, #99 of 654 statewide, top 16%, 474 students, 25% FRL); Lexington High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #137 of 781 statewide, top 19%, 746 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 145 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richland County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $65k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.2% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.