631 Bailey Dr #2 Dr · Mansfield, OH 44904

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tiny house living, condo style! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, large living room and kitchen with area for entertaining. Stove and refrigerator convey. Loads of storage! New flooring in living room, kitchen and bath. New windows with lifetime transferrable warranty. This condo is right beside indoor coin laundry. Inside mailbox. 1 car carport with storage space. Affordable utilities. Fresh, clean and ready to make your own!

Key facts

• Large closet
• Spacious eating area
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• FULLY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS EATING AREA
• LARGE CLOSET
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• CONCRETE PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential condominium
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.3% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in OH, #3,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities D-.
• Lexington Local (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #113 of 656 in OH (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 145 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $65k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.57%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $19,000
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $54,579
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44904

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $538

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $482	+0% $464	+5% $445	+10% $427
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $419	+0% $464	+5% $508	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $480	base $464	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
587 Bailey Dr Unit 13 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$955	$0.96	45d	1	0.10mi
1386 Robinhood Ln Unit 7 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$975	$0.97	45d	1	0.76mi
793 Sunset Blvd Bldg 6-7 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	45d	1	1.12mi
425 W Cook Rd Mansfield, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $65,000 Active 800-char remark
19. 2023-05-30
    soldstatus $34,000
20. 2018-03-23
    soldstatus $22,500 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Tiny house living, condo style! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, large living room and kitchen with area for entertaining. Stove and refrigerator convey. Loads of storage! New flooring in living room, kitchen and bath. New windows with lifetime transferrable warranty. This condo is right beside indoor coin laundry. Inside mailbox. 1 car carport with storage space. Affordable utilities. Fresh, clean and ready to make your own!

21. 2018-03-23
    soldstatus $22,500

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Tiny house living, condo style! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, large living room and kitchen with area for entertaining. Stove and refrigerator convey. Loads of storage! New flooring in living room, kitchen and bath. New windows with lifetime transferrable warranty. This condo is right beside indoor coin laundry. Inside mailbox. 1 car carport with storage space. Affordable utilities. Fresh, clean and ready to make your own!

22. 2018-01-30
    listed $26,900 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Tiny house living, condo style! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, large living room and kitchen with area for entertaining. Stove and refrigerator convey. Loads of storage! New flooring in living room, kitchen and bath. New windows with lifetime transferrable warranty. This condo is right beside indoor coin laundry. Inside mailbox. 1 car carport with storage space. Affordable utilities. Fresh, clean and ready to make your own!

23. 2018-01-29
    listed $26,900

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Tiny house living, condo style! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, large living room and kitchen with area for entertaining. Stove and refrigerator convey. Loads of storage! New flooring in living room, kitchen and bath. New windows with lifetime transferrable warranty. This condo is right beside indoor coin laundry. Inside mailbox. 1 car carport with storage space. Affordable utilities. Fresh, clean and ready to make your own!

24. 2004-05-25
    soldstatus $35,000
25. 1998-11-12
    soldstatus $36,000
26. 1997-11-03
    soldstatus $30,000
27. 1993-07-27
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $4,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington Local
• NCES district ID: 3904943
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,984
• Composite: 62.93/100
• National rank: #659
• State rank: #113 of 656 in OH

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #3525

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, OH
• County: Richland County · 43,943 people
• City population: 16,349
• Metro: Mansfield, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,450
• Household income: $62,364
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,577 people
• By 2030: 111,669 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 103,323 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 95,135 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 76,719 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 57,188 · -50.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.3) · D 28.4% · R 70.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -42.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.3 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.61%
• Current HPI: 203.175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mansfield, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $65,000 MARMLS
• 2023-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $22,500 CBRMLS
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MARMLS
• 2018-01-30 Listed $26,900 MARMLS
• 2018-01-29 Listed $26,900 CBRMLS
• 2004-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1993-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $685 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.