159 Morgan Ln

Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$300,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$434
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-309/mo
• Annual: $-3,706/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Blue Heron Elementary (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A-, #88 of 857 statewide, top 10%, 761 students, 29% FRL); Centennial Middle (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C+, #59 of 258 statewide, top 24%, 1,529 students, 26% FRL); Centennial High School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade C, #83 of 471 statewide, top 18%, 1,982 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.