159 Morgan Ln · Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2008 2,178 sqft lot $149/sqft · 17% below area Est $349k · 14% under $400/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom plus loft middle unit townhome in convenient Centennial School District location! Open main floor layout with center island, gas fireplace and fantastic outdoor patio area! This home is sure to impress and will not last long!

Key facts

• Dishwasher
• Gas fireplace
• Microwave

Tags

• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• DISHWASHER
• MICROWAVE
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE CORNER PANTRY
• ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional mortgage type (listed)
• HOA & community: Association (Cities Management); Monthly association fee of $400; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, shared amenities, and snow removal; In-ground sprinkler system listed as an association amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with storage and garage door opener; 2-car garage (22x19; garage door approx. 16x7)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; Attached property; Two levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old); Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 1,940
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; No fencing; Lot frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road; In-ground sprinkler (association amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen center island
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom suite (location implied); Upper level bedrooms: 15x14, 13x11, 12x10, 11x11
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom is private and includes double sink and jetted tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Tile floors; Kitchen center island; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom walk-in closet; Patio access; In-ground sprinkler; Washer/dryer hookup; 2nd floor laundry; Primary bedroom suite; Jetted tub; Double sink in primary bath; Main floor half bath; Upper level full bath; Gas fireplace in living room (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Upper level laundry; Washer/dryer hookup; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Blue Heron Elementary (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A-, #88 of 857 statewide, top 10%, 761 students, 29% FRL); Centennial Middle (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C+, #59 of 258 statewide, top 24%, 1,529 students, 26% FRL); Centennial High School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade C, #83 of 471 statewide, top 18%, 1,982 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $245,446 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,783
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,037
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-83,576
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,702/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $245,446

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-224	+0% $-309	+5% $-394	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-414	+0% $-309	+5% $-204	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-233	base $-309	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12283 Ghia Ct NE Unit B Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,940	$1.54	45d	1	1.21mi
7287 Savanna Ct Circle Pines, MN	3.0	3.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $300,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $310,000 Active 968-char remark
17. 2019-07-25
    soldstatus $239,900
18. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $239,900 Sold 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom plus loft middle unit townhome in convenient Centennial School District location! Open main floor layout with center island, gas fireplace and fantastic outdoor patio area! This home is sure to impress and will not last long!

19. 2019-06-11
    status Pending 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom plus loft middle unit townhome in convenient Centennial School District location! Open main floor layout with center island, gas fireplace and fantastic outdoor patio area! This home is sure to impress and will not last long!

20. 2019-05-24
    historical Contingent - Inspection 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom plus loft middle unit townhome in convenient Centennial School District location! Open main floor layout with center island, gas fireplace and fantastic outdoor patio area! This home is sure to impress and will not last long!

21. 2019-05-19
    listed $239,900 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom plus loft middle unit townhome in convenient Centennial School District location! Open main floor layout with center island, gas fireplace and fantastic outdoor patio area! This home is sure to impress and will not last long!

22. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus $172,900
23. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $172,900 Sold
24. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $172,900
25. 2014-05-04
    status Pending
26. 2014-05-03
    historical Contingent - Other
27. 2014-04-25
    listed $172,900 Active
28. 2014-04-25
    listed $172,900
29. 2009-05-15
    soldstatus $162,000
30. 2009-04-15
    historical
31. 2009-03-15
    listed $166,900
32. 2006-11-03
    soldstatus $1,675,420

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,702 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,702 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,702
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lino Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #6259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lino Lakes, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 28,975
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-82.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $310,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-19 Listed $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $172,900 Public Records
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $172,900 LSAR
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $172,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Listed $172,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Listed $172,900 LSAR
• 2009-05-15 Sold (MLS) $162,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-15 Listed $166,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,675,420 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,702 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.