14931 US 460

Ezel, KY 41425

$145,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $133/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($133/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $541 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-461 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ezel Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 120 students, 64% FRL); Morgan County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 413 students, 67% FRL); Morgan County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 598 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.