14931 US 460 · Ezel, KY 41425

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2008 0.70 ac lot $100/sqft · 15% below area Est $172k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this well-maintained manufactured home that sits comfortably on a nice-sized yard, surrounded by open farmland and wide, peaceful views. This home has both a covered front porch for morning coffee, and a deck to enjoy those cookouts and watch the summer sunsets. Inside, an efficient 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with plenty of space in the living room and open kitchen at the heart of the home; the primary bedroom includes the primary bath with large tub, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each room sized for comfort and with their own walk-in closet. Outside, a level lawn offers space to enjoy with multiple buildings for storage and space to work on your next project. This property is perfect for those who are looking to downsize or find their first home. Ask how you could get approved for no money down on this property!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Level lawn
• Open kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LEVEL LAWN
• MULTIPLE BUILDINGS FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($133/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ezel Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 120 students, 64% FRL); Morgan County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 413 students, 67% FRL); Morgan County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 598 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $541 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-461 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,344 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,549
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -15.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,661
• Equity at exit: $39,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,724
• Equity at exit: $46,062

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41425

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,576/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $52	+0% $11	+5% $-30	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-40	+0% $11	+5% $63	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $48	base $11	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $145,000 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $145,000 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Come take a look at this well-maintained manufactured home that sits comfortably on a nice-sized yard, surrounded by open farmland and wide, peaceful views. This home has both a covered front porch for morning coffee, and a deck to enjoy those cookouts and watch the summer sunsets. Inside, an efficient 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with plenty of space in the living room and open kitchen at the heart of the home; the primary bedroom includes the primary bath with large tub, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each room sized for comfort and with their own walk-in closet. Outside, a level lawn offers space to enjoy with multiple buildings for storage and space to work on your next project. This property is perfect for those who are looking to downsize or find their first home. Ask how you could get approved for no money down on this property!

17. 2026-04-18
    price $149,900 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Come take a look at this well-maintained manufactured home that sits comfortably on a nice-sized yard, surrounded by open farmland and wide, peaceful views. This home has both a covered front porch for morning coffee, and a deck to enjoy those cookouts and watch the summer sunsets. Inside, an efficient 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with plenty of space in the living room and open kitchen at the heart of the home; the primary bedroom includes the primary bath with large tub, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each room sized for comfort and with their own walk-in closet. Outside, a level lawn offers space to enjoy with multiple buildings for storage and space to work on your next project. This property is perfect for those who are looking to downsize or find their first home. Ask how you could get approved for no money down on this property!

18. 2026-04-08
    price $155,000 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Come take a look at this well-maintained manufactured home that sits comfortably on a nice-sized yard, surrounded by open farmland and wide, peaceful views. This home has both a covered front porch for morning coffee, and a deck to enjoy those cookouts and watch the summer sunsets. Inside, an efficient 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with plenty of space in the living room and open kitchen at the heart of the home; the primary bedroom includes the primary bath with large tub, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each room sized for comfort and with their own walk-in closet. Outside, a level lawn offers space to enjoy with multiple buildings for storage and space to work on your next project. This property is perfect for those who are looking to downsize or find their first home. Ask how you could get approved for no money down on this property!

19. 2026-03-23
    listed $159,000 Active 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Come take a look at this well-maintained manufactured home that sits comfortably on a nice-sized yard, surrounded by open farmland and wide, peaceful views. This home has both a covered front porch for morning coffee, and a deck to enjoy those cookouts and watch the summer sunsets. Inside, an efficient 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with plenty of space in the living room and open kitchen at the heart of the home; the primary bedroom includes the primary bath with large tub, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each room sized for comfort and with their own walk-in closet. Outside, a level lawn offers space to enjoy with multiple buildings for storage and space to work on your next project. This property is perfect for those who are looking to downsize or find their first home. Ask how you could get approved for no money down on this property!

20. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus $129,900
21. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $100,000
22. 2022-03-22
    soldstatus $87,500
23. 2008-03-14
    soldstatus $73,928

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,576
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County
• NCES district ID: 2104290
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $31,371
• Composite: 19.78/100
• National rank: #8704
• State rank: #150 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ezel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #17739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ezel, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,146

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,632 people
• By 2030: 12,211 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 11,408 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 10,612 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 8,790 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 6,944 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.5% · R 81.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Current HPI: 186.644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $145,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $155,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $159,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2008-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $73,928 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,576 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.