4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,230 sqft ·
Built 1940
· Other
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,194/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$107
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$251
Net cashflow
$181/mo
Annual
$2,171/yr
Cap rate
8.03%
Cash-on-cash
6.20%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (4.5% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $119k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Mexico 59 (town): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #229 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elem. (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #751 of 1,115 statewide, top 68%, 429 students, 100% FRL); Mexico Middle (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #260 of 391 statewide, top 67%, 503 students, 100% FRL); Mexico High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 746 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 52% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HRGZQE2CBSZJC5
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29