2505 Jackson Ave #179

Escalon, CA 95320

$32,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $1,030/mo
• Annual: $12,364/yr
• Cap rate: 44.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 137.99%
• DSCR: 7.14
• 1% rule: 4.95%
• Cash to close: $8,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#847 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Escalon Unified (town): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #258 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dent Elementary (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #712 of 1,571 statewide, top 46%, 668 students, 42% FRL); El Portal Middle (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #181 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 588 students, 44% FRL); Escalon High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 812 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 44.9% vs local median 3.0% in Escalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.