2505 Jackson Ave #179 · Escalon, CA 95320

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1974 $40/sqft · 44% below area Est $57k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to peaceful living in the heart of Escalon one of the Central Valley's most charming small towns! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is nestled within the sought-after Almond Grove 55+ Community, where neighbors become friends & life moves at just the right pace. Step inside and you'll instantly feel the warmth of this bright, open floor plan sunlight streams through large windows, filling the living space w/ a welcoming glow. The kitchen offers everything you need in a thoughtfully designed layout, perfect for quiet mornings or sharing coffee with a friend. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized, featuring built-in storage & easy access to the update

Key facts

• Shaded porch
• Clubhouse gatherings
• Covered carport

Tags

• SHADED PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• CLUBHOUSE GATHERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.9% vs local median 3.0% in Escalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#847 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Escalon Unified (town): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #258 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dent Elementary (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #712 of 1,571 statewide, top 46%, 668 students, 42% FRL); El Portal Middle (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #181 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 588 students, 44% FRL); Escalon High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 812 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 137.99%
• DSCR: 7.14
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,113
• List price: $32,000
• Delta: -43.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2505 Jackson Ave #113	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	1mo	$28,000	$36	96
2505 Jackson Ave #114	0.04mi	2/2.0	780 (-2%)	12mo	$58,000	$74	80
2505 Jackson Ave #124	0.02mi	2/2.0	912 (+14%)	8mo	$104,900	$115	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $60,461
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.32×
• Total profit: $137,245
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95320

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $1,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,052	-5% $1,041	+0% $1,030	+5% $1,019	+10% $1,008
Rent	-10% $905	-5% $968	+0% $1,030	+5% $1,093	+10% $1,155
Rate	-1.0pp $1,046	-0.5pp $1,038	base $1,030	+0.5pp $1,022	+1.0pp $1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2174 Coley Ave Apt 32 Escalon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,650	$1.74	15d	1	0.21mi
2174 Coley Ave Apt 34 Escalon, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,525	$2.03	15d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $32,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $32,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $32,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $32,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $12,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,025
• After-tax cash flow: $9,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escalon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612840
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,800
• Composite: 31.95/100
• National rank: #5844
• State rank: #258 of 517 in CA

Livability — Escalon

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #847
• US rank: #23351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escalon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,511

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Russian 13% Iranian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.16%
• Current HPI: 289.011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B