11802 Ystal Ln

Iola, TX 77861

$275,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-291/mo
• Annual: $-3,497/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,107 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Iola ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #163 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Iola El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 293 students, 39% FRL); Iola H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 294 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Iola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.