11802 Ystal Ln · Iola, TX 77861

$275,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Great wooded property that backs up to King Oaks neighborhood. This is a nice country getaway with cabin-style home. Would also be a great hunting cabin-type property, with several walking trails carved throughout the almost 8 acres. The cabin is about 750 square feet and includes a covered carport and workshop next to the home. Cabin is in poor condition, some would consider it a fixer-upper, others would consider it a tear-down and build new. The cabin is located at the bottom of the property on the North side, up the hill at the top there is a very nice open area that would be a great location for a new home build.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Country getaway
• Hunting cabin

Tags

• WOODED PROPERTY
• BACKS UP TO KING OAKS
• COUNTRY GETAWAY
• HUNTING CABIN
• WALKING TRAILS
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Iola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,107 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Iola ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #163 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Iola El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 293 students, 39% FRL); Iola H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 294 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,139 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $131,169
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $400,785
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77861

• Home prices YoY: 23.3%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,260

Max offer price $223,519

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-214	+0% $-291	+5% $-369	+10% $-447
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-366	+0% $-291	+5% $-217	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-221	base $-291	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $275,000 Active
18. 2011-10-27
    soldstatus
19. 2011-08-09
    soldstatus
20. 2009-06-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,286/yr (+$190/mo · 83.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,031
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824240
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,213
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #2979
• State rank: #163 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iola

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #19600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,785

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.14%
• Current HPI: 264.958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $275,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.