3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Manufactured
· Active
· 71 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,753/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$368
Net cashflow
$486/mo
Annual
$5,833/yr
Cap rate
10.78%
Cash-on-cash
16.03%
DSCR
1.71
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#814 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HSMX7PEEQ5KJA1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29