4104 Raccoon Ridge Rd

Climax Springs, MO 65078

$190,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Built 2005 · Other · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-198/mo
• Annual: $-2,376/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (37.4% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#910 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morgan Co. R-I Elem. (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 410 students, 99% FRL); Morgan Co. R-I High (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 420 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.6% in Climax Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.