4104 Raccoon Ridge Rd · Climax Springs, MO 65078

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Other public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2005 $120/sqft · 6% above area Est $203k · 7% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Beds | 2 Bath fixer upper in Stover, Mo! A fantastic chance to customize and build equity. Situated on Raccoon Ridge Road, enjoy tranquil country living just a 5-minute walk to the lake, with multiple boat ramps and public lake access nearby. The Wigwam Conservation Area is a 10-minute drive, and several marinas offer boat slip rentals. Perfect for families and outdoor lovers! With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and tons of potential, this home is a real find for investors or DIY enthusiast!

Key facts

• Public lake access
• Boat slip rentals
• Built 2005

Tags

• PUBLIC LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT SLIP RENTALS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level and approximately 1 acre; Asphalt-paved road access; Directions to property available
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No community features

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with gravel driveway; No garage
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Well water (shared well); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single-story (one level); Fixer condition; Located in the Ivy Bend subdivision; Residential zoning
• Construction: Metal siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as a one-story structure
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Covered porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Vaulted ceilings; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (37.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.6% in Climax Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#910 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morgan Co. R-I Elem. (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 410 students, 99% FRL); Morgan Co. R-I High (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 420 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,989 (37.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,390
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -6.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $52,216
• Equity at exit: $130,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $161,181
• Equity at exit: $245,840

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65078

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $155,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-144	+0% $-198	+5% $-252	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-245	+0% $-198	+5% $-151	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-150	base $-198	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $190,000 492-char remark
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $215,000 Active 492-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,094/yr (+$91/mo · 146.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $-965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,188
• Composite: 32.47/100
• National rank: #5714
• State rank: #173 of 324 in MO

Livability — Climax Springs

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #25720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,716

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,779 people
• By 2030: 17,891 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 16,227 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 14,735 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 11,433 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 7,717 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.7) · D 19.7% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -59.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.7 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+34.1 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Current HPI: 164.4454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $190,000 LOBR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $215,000 LOBR

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.