25 Toyon Trl

Berry Creek, CA 95916

$98,500D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$49
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-161/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $27,580

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32 of equity ($681 loan paydown + $-649 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,117 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.