25 Toyon Trl · Berry Creek, CA 95916

$98,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1930 6,098 sqft lot $49/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lake Madrone is where you can still find the quintessential "Cabin in the Woods" and a bargain price. The time is now to create those unforgettable memories with the family that will last a lifetime. Swimming beach, boating, fishing, horseshoes, picnic table, firepit and More! Short 30-minute drive around Lake Oroville up to the cooler summer lake.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: TM1; Directions: Hwy 162 to first Lake Madrone gate; Toyon Trail is first road on the right
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Lake Madrone Ass (annual fee $250); Secondary association Madrone Water (annual fee $300); Tertiary fee $35 annually; Association amenities include fire pit, outdoor cooking area, and picnic area; Community offers watersports, biking, hiking, fishing; mountainous and lake setting

Exterior

• Parking: Private road access (maintained)
• Security: Gated community with card/code access and automatic gate
• Utilities: Water: private/other (see remarks); Septic tank; Electricity connected; Telephone available in street
• Home design: Single-story cabin; Entry at front; One total unit; Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Utility basement; Year built from public records
• Exterior features: Cabin structure; Wood deck and wood patio; No pool; No fencing; Lot is steeply sloped and rectangular; Lake rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; 220V outlet in kitchen; Eating area in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Unfinished walls; Wood frame windows; Front entry; One-level layout; Has view; Card/code access with automatic gated community
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed; Utility basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,117 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32 of equity ($681 loan paydown + $-649 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,985 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-6,724
• Equity at exit: $25,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,751
• Equity at exit: $28,080

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95916

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $96,135

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,500 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,500 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,500 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,500 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,500 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,500 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,500 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,500 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,500 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    status Active
19. 2026-05-01
    status Pending Sale
20. 2026-04-27
    listed $98,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 43 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$825
• − Management: −$825
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable loss: −$1,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$439
• After-tax cash flow: $278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Berry Creek

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1117
• US rank: #25616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berry Creek, CA
• City population: 765
• Population (ZIP): 765

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hungarian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Current HPI: 147.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $98,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.