51 Wilderness Way

Pahrump, NV 89048

$89,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $280/mo
• Annual: $3,354/yr
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J G Johnson Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #290 of 402 statewide, top 75%, 518 students, 100% FRL); Rosemary Clarke Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 1,060 students, 100% FRL); Pahrump Valley High School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 131 statewide, top 56%, 1,362 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $89k implies a 574% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.