51 Wilderness Way · Pahrump, NV 89048

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 1977 3,920 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $89k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity. This property offers strong flip potential. Located in Comstock mobile home park in Pahrump, just miles from the CA border. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views & access to community amenities including a pool, park, and more, all w/ a low HOA fee, land is owned! Offering 2bed/1bth fixer-upper with great potential! Mostly cosmetic updates needed—perfect opportunity for a handyman or investor flip. Home has not yet been converted to real property. Situated on an oversized lot featuring a garden area and shed. Heater/AC not currently working. Priced accordingly and offered as-is. Tons of potential for the right buyer.

Key facts

• Garden area
• Shed
• Oversized lot

Tags

• GORGEOUS MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OVERSIZED LOT
• GARDEN AREA
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $89k implies a 574% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,425
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -0.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Wilderness Way	0.00mi	2/1.0	616 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$122	100
30 Tonopah Trl	0.09mi	2/1.0	618 (+0%)	18mo	$137,500	$222	80
221 W Moore Rd	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	625 (+2%)	10mo	$155,000	$248	69
291 Greenwater St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	667 (+8%)	7mo	$60,000	$90	63
271 Ferndell St	0.20mi	2/1.0	702 (+14%)	21mo	$140,000	$199	50
261 Hamilton St	0.22mi	2/1.0	702 (+14%)	22mo	$125,000	$178	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,101
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $24,479
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89048

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $310	+0% $280	+5% $249	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $233	+0% $280	+5% $326	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $302	base $280	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity. This property offers strong flip potential. Located in Comstock mobile home park in Pahrump, just miles from the CA border. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views & access to community amenities including a pool, park, and more, all w/ a low HOA fee, land is owned! Offering 2bed/1bth fixer-upper with great potential! Mostly cosmetic updates needed—perfect opportunity for a handyman or investor flip. Home has not yet been converted to real property. Situated on an oversized lot featuring a garden area and shed. Heater/AC not currently working. Priced accordingly and offered as-is. Tons of potential for the right buyer.

2. 2026-04-07
   price $89,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity. This property offers strong flip potential. Located in Comstock mobile home park in Pahrump, just miles from the CA border. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views & access to community amenities including a pool, park, and more, all w/ a low HOA fee, land is owned! Offering 2bed/1bth fixer-upper with great potential! Mostly cosmetic updates needed—perfect opportunity for a handyman or investor flip. Home has not yet been converted to real property. Situated on an oversized lot featuring a garden area and shed. Heater/AC not currently working. Priced accordingly and offered as-is. Tons of potential for the right buyer.

3. 2026-03-09
   price $98,000 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity. This property offers strong flip potential. Located in Comstock mobile home park in Pahrump, just miles from the CA border. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views & access to community amenities including a pool, park, and more, all w/ a low HOA fee, land is owned! Offering 2bed/1bth fixer-upper with great potential! Mostly cosmetic updates needed—perfect opportunity for a handyman or investor flip. Home has not yet been converted to real property. Situated on an oversized lot featuring a garden area and shed. Heater/AC not currently working. Priced accordingly and offered as-is. Tons of potential for the right buyer.

4. 2026-01-26
   listed $119,000 Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity. This property offers strong flip potential. Located in Comstock mobile home park in Pahrump, just miles from the CA border. Enjoy gorgeous mountain views & access to community amenities including a pool, park, and more, all w/ a low HOA fee, land is owned! Offering 2bed/1bth fixer-upper with great potential! Mostly cosmetic updates needed—perfect opportunity for a handyman or investor flip. Home has not yet been converted to real property. Situated on an oversized lot featuring a garden area and shed. Heater/AC not currently working. Priced accordingly and offered as-is. Tons of potential for the right buyer.

5. 2013-03-13
   soldstatus $13,200 Sold 5-char remark

   Show marketing remark (5 chars)

   CLEAN

6. 2013-02-22
   status Pending 5-char remark

   Show marketing remark (5 chars)

   CLEAN

7. 2013-01-16
   listed $15,000 Exclusive Right 5-char remark

   Show marketing remark (5 chars)

   CLEAN

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$500
• After-tax cash flow: $2,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 26,486
• Household income: $61,367
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.52%
• Current HPI: 277.4486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+493.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $89,000 GLVAR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $98,000 GLVAR
• 2026-01-26 Listed $119,000 GLVAR
• 2013-03-13 Sold (MLS) $13,200 GLVAR
• 2013-02-22 Pending — GLVAR
• 2013-01-16 Listed $15,000 GLVAR

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $146 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.