172 Van Gogh Cv

Bradenton, FL 34212

$459,990D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$695
• HOA: −$235
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-1,499/mo
• Annual: $-17,991/yr
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.97%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $128,797

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (57.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (49.3% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (57.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elementary School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Carlos E. Haile Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 45% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.