9134 Chula Vista St #12504

Lely Resort, FL 34113

$360,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,848/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$1,001
• HOA: −$1,244
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,228
• Net cashflow: $487/mo
• Annual: $5,847/yr
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.88%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $360k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $265k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,848/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.