18817 N Ventana Ln

Maricopa, AZ 85138

$255,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$91
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,154/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.