1458 Brittany Ln

Odessa, TX 79761

$145,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,370 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $420/mo
• Annual: $5,039/yr
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.41%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.