800 Staghorn Pl

Farmington, NM 87401

$209,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,526 sqft · Built 1977 · Other · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,768/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-669/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (476 students, 100% FRL); Tibbetts Middle School (683 students, 100% FRL); Farmington High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #18 of 110 statewide, top 17%, 1,824 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+37 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Farmington Municipal Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.