800 Staghorn Pl · Farmington, NM 87401

$209,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,526 sqft · Other public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1977 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A lot to love and love still needed. Investor opportunity with renovations started but not completed. Some stucco and newer windows have been installed. Bathroom and kitchen demolition were started & some flooring was removed. The property offers abundant space, including a pool area with two dressing rooms, a hot tub area and multiple flexible spaces. Please use caution when touring as some spaces are distressed. The seller is a non occupant who aquired the property and has limited knowledge. The property does have a reported history of some structural issues. Buyers are responsible for any inspections and reports desired. Home will be sold in the current condition.

Key facts

• Flexible spaces
• Pool area
• Hot tub area

Tags

• POOL AREA
• HOT TUB AREA
• DRESSING ROOMS
• FLEXIBLE SPACES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Two stories
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Located on a cul-de-sac; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Living room fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (476 students, 100% FRL); Tibbetts Middle School (683 students, 100% FRL); Farmington High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #18 of 110 statewide, top 17%, 1,824 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+37 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Farmington Municipal Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,795 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,609
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,538
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87401

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,434/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,839

Max offer price $199,153

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $3	+0% $-56	+5% $-115	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-126	+0% $-56	+5% $14	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-3	base $-56	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 677-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,434 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥94°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,434
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500990
• Math proficiency: 23% —
• Reading proficiency: 43% —
• Median HH income: $51,365
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #11178
• State rank: #23 of 95 in NM

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #11926

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, NM
• County: San Juan County · 45,229 people
• City population: 45,229
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• Population (ZIP): 45,229
• Household income: $61,886
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Native American 32% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.62%
• Current HPI: 170.162
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $209,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,434 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.