4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,050 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Townhouse
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,105/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,227
Tax + insurance
−$717
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$442
Net cashflow
$-281/mo
Annual
$-3,367/yr
Cap rate
7.04%
Cash-on-cash
2.67%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$65,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $234k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (21.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (10.0% below list).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#137 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $160k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.4% in Chalmette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,105/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 881% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HTGNB20VMBYA1V
· Data 21 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29