1600 Bay Blvd

Atlantic Beach, NY 11509

$2,450,000B

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,513 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,848
• Tax + insurance: −$3,195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,780
• Net cashflow: $5,702/mo
• Annual: $68,419/yr
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $686,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $2.45M).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.41M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $262k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $245k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#376 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Elementary School At Broadway Campus (math 35% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 480 students, 78% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $686k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$421k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.