1600 Bay Blvd · Atlantic Beach, NY 11509

$2,450,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,513 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1942 7,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Online Bankruptcy Auction: Spectacular Bayfront Luxury Home. Bidding opens 12/9 at 12:00 noon & Ends 12/11 at 12:00 noon (appx). The listing price of $2,450,000 exclusively represents the Opening Bid Amount Only and not the asking price. Please conduct independent due diligence as the property sells "as-is" and the information provided is not guaranteed to be accurate. Sold Subject to a Five Percent Buyers Premium.

Key facts

• 7,120 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $2.45M).
• Recommended offer: $2.41M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#376 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Elementary School At Broadway Campus (math 35% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 480 students, 78% FRL); Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $262k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $245k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $686k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$421k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,413,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,528,155
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1590 Beech St	0.08mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,300 (-6%)	6mo	$1,325,000	$402	76
1482 Park St	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,500 (-0%)	12mo	$1,532,000	$438	70
1515 Park St	0.18mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,600 (+2%)	17mo	$1,350,000	$375	68
1830 Bay Blvd	0.47mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,602 (+2%)	20mo	$3,700,000	$1,027	48
83 Ithaca Ave	0.55mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,000 (+14%)	0mo	$2,225,000	$556	44
1250 Park St	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,860 (+10%)	21mo	$1,675,000	$434	34
1263 Park St	0.63mi	4/2.5	3,102 (-12%)	19mo	$1,350,000	$435	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $1,697,343
• Equity at exit: $2,207,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $4,712,567
• Equity at exit: $4,759,811

Cash invested: $686,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11509

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,848
• Tax from tax record: −$1,714 /mo · $20,571/yr
• Insurance: −$1,021
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,780
• Net cashflow: $5,702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,308

Max offer price $2,450,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,089	-5% $6,395	+0% $5,702	+5% $5,008	+10% $4,315
Rent	-10% $3,527	-5% $4,614	+0% $5,702	+5% $6,789	+10% $7,876
Rate	-1.0pp $6,935	-0.5pp $6,325	base $5,702	+0.5pp $5,067	+1.0pp $4,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $612,500
• Closing costs: $73,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Tioga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2800	$5,800	$2.07	26d	1	0.10mi
1701 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2730	$25,000	$9.16	26d	1	0.17mi
215 Scott Dr Atlantic Beach, NY	5.0	3.0	2862	$22,500	$7.86	0d	1	0.59mi
115 Maryland Ave Long Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2822	$8,500	$3.01	0d	1	1.26mi
71 Michigan St Long Beach, NY	5.0	4.5	3168	$8,900	$2.81	7d	1	1.29mi
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	45d	1	1.30mi
11 Michigan St Long Beach, NY	5.0	3.5	3492	$45,000	$12.89	26d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   soldstatus $5,339,250
2. 2025-12-12
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-11
   listed $2,450,000 Active
4. 2015-11-22
   soldstatus $2,850,000
5. 2011-12-08
   soldstatus $2,590,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,571 · $1,714/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $30,988 · $2,582/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,417/yr (+$868/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $330,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$137,238
• − Property taxes: −$20,571
• − Insurance: −$17,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,425
• − Management: −$26,425
• − Depreciation: −$71,273
• Taxable income: $30,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,344
• After-tax cash flow: $61,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Atlantic Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlantic Beach, NY
• City population: 1,747
• Population (ZIP): 1,747

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.04%
• Current HPI: 392.2777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+106.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $5,339,250 Public Records
• 2025-12-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $2,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $2,850,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $2,590,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $20,571 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.