454 Bradford Dr

York, PA 17356

$279,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-958/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• Dallastown Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #102 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dallastown Area Ms (math 30% / reading 55%, grade D-, #216 of 512 statewide, top 43%, 1,027 students, 34% FRL); Dallastown Area Shs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 2,014 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.