454 Bradford Dr · York, PA 17356

$279,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,720 sqft · Townhouse · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot Est $282k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Inquire for incentives * Welcome home to 454 Bradford Dr in Red Lion PA! Located in the Hudson Ridge community within the Dallastown Area School District, this newly constructed interior townhome offers approximately 1,720 square feet of modern living space with quick move-in opportunities available, as well as additional to-be-built options. Designed with a bright, open layout and 9+ foot ceilings throughout, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home combines functionality, natural light and contemporary finishes in a convenient location. The main living level features an open floor plan connecting the kitchen, dining and living areas. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, an island, buil

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Optional rear deck
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HUDSON RIDGE COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPTIONAL REAR DECK
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $25 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with inside access and garage door opener (1-car); Asphalt driveway with 2 additional spaces; Total of 3 garage/parking spaces; Off-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in excellent to very good condition; Construction not completed (builder: Burkentine Builders)
• Construction: Vinyl siding, stick-built construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on upper level; Entry-level bedroom
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper level); One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast area; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Sliding glass door; Walk-in shower; Tub/shower combination; 9'+ and cathedral ceilings; Sprinkler system
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (upper floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
• Dallastown Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #102 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dallastown Area Ms (math 30% / reading 55%, grade D-, #216 of 512 statewide, top 43%, 1,027 students, 34% FRL); Dallastown Area Shs (math 71% / reading 24%, grade D, #164 of 437 statewide, top 38%, 2,014 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,870 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
442 Bradford Dr #56	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,720 (0%)	2mo	$276,400	$161	96
438 Bradford Dr #58	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,720 (0%)	2mo	$289,300	$168	95
435 Bradford Dr #187	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	5mo	$274,900	$160	94
439 Bradford Dr #185	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,720 (0%)	6mo	$286,500	$167	93
443 Bradford Dr #183	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$314,700	$183	89
320 Avon Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,700 (-1%)	2mo	$290,000	$171	88
246 Hudson Blvd	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,810 (+5%)	0mo	$291,000	$161	81
444 Bradford Dr #55	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,900 (+10%)	0mo	$307,150	$162	79
350 Avon Dr #270	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,900 (+10%)	4mo	$299,900	$158	73
433 Bradford Dr #188	0.06mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (+10%)	5mo	$326,500	$172	67
169 Jonathan Way N	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,778 (+3%)	3mo	$240,000	$135	60
10 Steeple Ave	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-15%)	4mo	$239,900	$164	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-50,569
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,106
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17356

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,120

Max offer price $265,799

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Avon Dr Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,050	$1.19	43d	1	0.16mi
259 Stratford Dr Red Lion, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,250	$1.38	43d	1	0.22mi
406 Valor Way Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1252	$1,875	$1.50	21d	1	0.23mi
224 Sienna Ln Yoe, PA	3.0	2.5	1252	$1,979	$1.58	21d	1	0.31mi
66 Cadbury Dr Red Lion, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,250	$1.38	13d	1	0.33mi
198 Cadbury Dr Red Lion, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,250	$1.38	13d	1	0.36mi
306 Orchard Ct Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,495	$1.15	21d	1	0.76mi
21 Windsor Way Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1385	$2,150	$1.55	13d	8	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $279,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,820/yr (+$152/mo · 232.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallastown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207230
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $61,805
• Composite: 48.0/100
• National rank: #2199
• State rank: #102 of 539 in PA

Livability — York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #3987

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 184,764
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $86,561
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.16%
• Current HPI: 259.7294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS