4955 Wheel Dr

Langley, WA 98260

$219,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $878/mo
• Annual: $10,534/yr
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#88 in WA, #1,696 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Whidbey School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #87 of 291 in WA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $219k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.3% in Langley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.