4955 Wheel Dr · Langley, WA 98260

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1987 $178/sqft · 13% above area Est $193k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the comfort of living in a 55+ community in a 3 bd, 2 full bath home with many updated features. Open living rm, eating/ dining area and kitchen with eating bar. Free standing wood stove / w/ w carpet w/ vinyl in kitchen, baths and utility room. Ramp from carport to the back utility door entrance, living room sliders to back deck & small porch at front entrance. New paint inside and out in 2016 windows and some new appliances in 2017, roof 2018 & water heater in 2022. Monthly land rental fee includes the taxes on the lot plus water & septic which is inspected yearly. Road maintenance, dumpster for trash, mailbox. book lending spot and a community park with gazebo and

Key facts

• Green area
• Gazebo
• Community park

Tags

• FREE STANDING WOOD STOVE
• EATING BAR
• BACK DECK
• COMMUNITY PARK
• GAZEBO
• GREEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.3% in Langley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#88 in WA, #1,696 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Whidbey School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #87 of 291 in WA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $219k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,000
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 13.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4958 Wheel Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	2mo	$206,000	$184	78
4973 Wheel Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,323 (+8%)	14mo	$227,500	$172	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $20,345
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $89,396
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98260

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $970/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,002	-5% $940	+0% $878	+5% $816	+10% $754
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $768	+0% $878	+5% $988	+10% $1,098
Rate	-1.0pp $988	-0.5pp $934	base $878	+0.5pp $821	+1.0pp $763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $219,000
18. 2026-01-09
    listed $230,000 Active
19. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus $72,500
20. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $39,734

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 121.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$970
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,671
• − Management: −$2,671
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $7,347
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,763
• After-tax cash flow: $8,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Whidbey School District
• NCES district ID: 5308190
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,601
• Composite: 50.31/100
• National rank: #4050
• State rank: #87 of 291 in WA

Livability — Langley

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #1696

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Island County · 71,196 people
• City population: 5,320
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 5,320
• Household income: $101,987
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,019 people
• By 2030: 81,329 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 78,552 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 77,042 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 80,799 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 84,451 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Slovak 7% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Island

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 56.8% · R 40.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -370.15%
• Current HPI: 211.9851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+451.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $219,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $230,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,734 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $970 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.