3154 Alhambra Cir

Stockbridge, GA 30228

$385,000D

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,021 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$775
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-262/mo
• Annual: $-3,149/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $328k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#389 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dutchtown Elementary School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #718 of 1,228 statewide, top 59%, 932 students, 47% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #258 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 1,092 students, 50% FRL); Dutchtown High (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,861 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 561 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $320k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Stockbridge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,275/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 1285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?