178-C28 Elephant Rd

Dublin, PA 18917

$215,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$220
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,585/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,201 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pennridge SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #112 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bedminster El Sch (math 65% / reading 73%, grade A-, #178 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 420 students, 23% FRL); Pennridge North Ms (math 35% / reading 67%, grade C, #116 of 512 statewide, top 24%, 581 students, 28% FRL); Pennridge Hs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 2,285 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $215k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.