178-C28 Elephant Rd · Dublin, PA 18917

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · Condo · 27 Days on market

Built 1985 $222/sqft · 11% below area Est $242k · 11% under $220/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this charming 2nd-floor condo, thoughtfully refreshed with fresh paint throughout and brand-new carpeting, making it completely move-in ready. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and inviting layout. This home features two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space, along with a full bathroom. Nestled toward the rear of the community, the unit offers a more private and peaceful setting. Just steps away, you’ll find a generously sized common area—perfect for enjoying the outdoors. An excellent opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Brand-new carpeting
• 2nd-floor condo

Tags

• 2ND-FLOOR CONDO
• FRESH PAINT
• BRAND-NEW CARPETING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,201 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pennridge SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #112 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bedminster El Sch (math 65% / reading 73%, grade A-, #178 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 420 students, 23% FRL); Pennridge North Ms (math 35% / reading 67%, grade C, #116 of 512 statewide, top 24%, 581 students, 28% FRL); Pennridge Hs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 2,285 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $215k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,893 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,346
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -11.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,084
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-47,674
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18917

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $195,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-58	+0% $-132	+5% $-206	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-211	+0% $-132	+5% $-53	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-77	base $-132	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
178 Elephant Rd Dublin, PA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	7d	1	0.05mi
172 Elephant Rd Unit 2 Dublin, PA	2.0	1.0	1023	$1,875	$1.83	6d	1	0.06mi
125 Allem Ln Perkasie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	4d	1	0.20mi
301 Station Dr Dublin, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,400	$2.67	0d	6	0.25mi
160 Middle Rd Dublin, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,409	$2.69	0d	12	0.76mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Step into this charming 2nd-floor condo, thoughtfully refreshed with fresh paint throughout and brand-new carpeting, making it completely move-in ready. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and inviting layout. This home features two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space, along with a full bathroom. Nestled toward the rear of the community, the unit offers a more private and peaceful setting. Just steps away, you’ll find a generously sized common area—perfect for enjoying the outdoors. An excellent opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living!

2. 2026-04-30
   price $215,000 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Step into this charming 2nd-floor condo, thoughtfully refreshed with fresh paint throughout and brand-new carpeting, making it completely move-in ready. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and inviting layout. This home features two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space, along with a full bathroom. Nestled toward the rear of the community, the unit offers a more private and peaceful setting. Just steps away, you’ll find a generously sized common area—perfect for enjoying the outdoors. An excellent opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living!

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $220,000 Active 613-char remark

   Show marketing remark (613 chars)

   Step into this charming 2nd-floor condo, thoughtfully refreshed with fresh paint throughout and brand-new carpeting, making it completely move-in ready. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and inviting layout. This home features two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space, along with a full bathroom. Nestled toward the rear of the community, the unit offers a more private and peaceful setting. Just steps away, you’ll find a generously sized common area—perfect for enjoying the outdoors. An excellent opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living!

4. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus $85,000 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Here It Is!, Priced For A Quick Sale, Won't Last At This Price!, Located In The Quiet And Peaceful Countryside Condos Of Dublin Boro. This 2nd Floor Unit Has Massive Bedrooms, Your Own Washer And Dryer (No More Trips To The Luandry Room!!!) And Is Right By The Immense Playground Which Is Perfect For Children! Your Own Parking Spot And Plenty Of Visitor Spots As Well. Great Starter Or Investment Unit. Call Now And Make An Appointment Right Away!!!One Year Home Warranty Included!!!

5. 2003-10-20
   historical 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Here It Is!, Priced For A Quick Sale, Won't Last At This Price!, Located In The Quiet And Peaceful Countryside Condos Of Dublin Boro. This 2nd Floor Unit Has Massive Bedrooms, Your Own Washer And Dryer (No More Trips To The Luandry Room!!!) And Is Right By The Immense Playground Which Is Perfect For Children! Your Own Parking Spot And Plenty Of Visitor Spots As Well. Great Starter Or Investment Unit. Call Now And Make An Appointment Right Away!!!One Year Home Warranty Included!!!

6. 2003-10-10
   listed $85,000 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Here It Is!, Priced For A Quick Sale, Won't Last At This Price!, Located In The Quiet And Peaceful Countryside Condos Of Dublin Boro. This 2nd Floor Unit Has Massive Bedrooms, Your Own Washer And Dryer (No More Trips To The Luandry Room!!!) And Is Right By The Immense Playground Which Is Perfect For Children! Your Own Parking Spot And Plenty Of Visitor Spots As Well. Great Starter Or Investment Unit. Call Now And Make An Appointment Right Away!!!One Year Home Warranty Included!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pennridge SD
• NCES district ID: 4218750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $73,770
• Composite: 47.48/100
• National rank: #2277
• State rank: #112 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1201
• US rank: #14126

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dublin, PA
• City population: 2,176
• Population (ZIP): 2,176

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.66%
• Current HPI: 296.6992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+152.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-11-14 Sold (MLS) $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-10-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-10-10 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS