4 Lakewood Ln

Quogue, NY 11959

$2,495,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax + insurance: −$4,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,486
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,399/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $698,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.44M (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.14M (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.42M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.14M (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.