4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 101 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,894/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$398
Net cashflow
$-47/mo
Annual
$-565/yr
Cap rate
6.06%
Cash-on-cash
-0.82%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-565/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (3.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (22.7% below list).
It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #296 of 646 statewide, top 46%, 458 students, 64% FRL); Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); Captain Shreve High School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #116 of 265 statewide, top 44%, 1,851 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 64% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29