844 S Tonto Creek Dr

Gisela, AZ 85541

$99,999B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,714/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$593
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $236/mo
• Annual: $2,837/yr
• Cap rate: 14.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.41%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#376 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.