844 S Tonto Creek Dr · Gisela, AZ 85541

$109,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1978 9,147 sqft lot $95/sqft · 50% below area Est $219k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

Key facts

• Mountain air
• Blend of privacy
• Outdoor attractions

Tags

• TONTO CREEK AREA
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• MOUNTAIN AIR
• BLEND OF PRIVACY
• OUTDOOR ATTRACTIONS
• DRIVING DISTANCE OF PHOENIX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#376 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $110k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,399 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.14%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,000
• List price: $109,999
• Delta: -49.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 E Windy Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	11mo	$234,725	$217	67
190 Chuck Wagon Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-1%)	11mo	$200,000	$175	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-6,883
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,894
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $205	+0% $167	+5% $129	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $100	+0% $167	+5% $235	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $195	base $167	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,999 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,999 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,999 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,999 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,999 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,999 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricestatus $109,999 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    price $124,999 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

11. 2026-04-24
    price $129,900 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

12. 2026-04-13
    price $134,900 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

13. 2026-04-06
    price $139,900 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

14. 2026-03-30
    price $149,000 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

15. 2026-03-23
    listed $159,000 Active 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Opportunity in Payson - Ideal for Homeowners or Investors Welcome to a unique opportunity in the desirable Tonto Creek area, where peaceful surroundings and mountain air create the perfect place to make it your home. Located just minutes from Tonto Creek, this property offers a rare blend of privacy, nature, and potential. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to step into ownership, searching for a full-time residence away from the city, or an investor seeking your next value-add project, this property checks all the boxes. The home offers solid bones with room for updates and personalization, making it an ideal canvas to create your vision. With some improvements, it can easily be transformed into a comfortable primary residence, a relaxing weekend retreat, or even a high-demand short-term rental. Enjoy proximity to outdoor attractions like Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, while still being within driving distance of Phoenix for added convenience. Affordable, flexible, and full of potential. This is your chance to own in one of Payson's most sought-after areas.

16. 2000-06-01
    soldstatus $49,900
17. 1994-10-04
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gisela

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #26651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gisela, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+792.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $124,999 CAAR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $129,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $134,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $139,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $149,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $159,000 CAAR
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1994-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records