518 N Church St

Lodi, CA 95240

$1,450,000B-

90 bd · 9.0 ba · 4,956 sqft · Built 1971 · MultiFamily · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax + insurance: −$1,085
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,279
• Net cashflow: $7,407/mo
• Annual: $88,888/yr
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.89%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $406,000

Investor read

• This is a 9 × 10-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($89k/yr) — positive. Per door: $823/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.45M).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $406k; list at $1.45M implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $20,375/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 1918% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.