518 N Church St · Lodi, CA 95240

$1,450,000

90 bd · 9.0 ba · 4,956 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1971 10,136 sqft lot $293/sqft · 80% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 9 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

The Church Street Apartments offer a prime investment opportunity with strong upside potential. This 9 unit complex is located near historic Downtown Lodi, providing tenants walkable access to shops and events. With below-market rents, recent electrical upgrades, and a low-maintenance cement driveway, the property combines location, value-add potential, and durability.

Key facts

• Walkable access
• 0.23 acre lot
• 9 parking spots

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN LODI
• WALKABLE ACCESS
• RECENT ELECTRICAL UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9 × 10-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($89k/yr) — positive. Per door: $823/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,375/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 1918% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $406k; list at $1.45M implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,276,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.89%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $807,201
• List price: $1,450,000
• Delta: 79.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $217,612
• Equity at exit: $216,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $719,620
• Equity at exit: $125,369

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 53.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,770/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,279
• Net cashflow: $7,407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,999

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 59%

9-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 9× units	10	1	$20,376
Total (9 units)			$20,375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,450,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2009-12-10
    soldstatus $406,500
16. 2003-06-24
    soldstatus $750,000
17. 1986-09-12
    soldstatus $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,770 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,020 · $918/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,250/yr (+$438/mo · 91.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$5,770
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,560
• − Management: −$19,560
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $68,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,549
• After-tax cash flow: $72,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+132.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2009-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $406,500 Public Records
• 2003-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 1986-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,770 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.