228 Newton Pl

Ballwin, MO 63021

$225,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $177/mo
• Annual: $2,129/yr
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.37%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $63,252

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (7.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $210k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ballwin Elem. (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C-, #273 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 434 students, 18% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.