3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,331 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 163 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,764/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$138
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$370
Net cashflow
$50/mo
Annual
$598/yr
Cap rate
6.55%
Cash-on-cash
0.93%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$64,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($598/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.3% below list).
It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,764/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HXP011055YNTCS
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29