414 Rose Ave

South Taft, CA 93268

$125,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,507/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $383/mo
• Annual: $4,590/yr
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.11%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,271 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Taft City (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #946 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Conley Elementary (312 students, 91% FRL); Lincoln Junior High (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #25 of 498 statewide, top 6%, 795 students, 89% FRL); Taft Union High (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #785 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,102 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Taft City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $125k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.