414 Rose Ave · South Taft, CA 93268

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1930 10,454 sqft lot Est $192k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom home near elementary school and shopping.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,271 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Taft City (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #946 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Conley Elementary (312 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 67% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $125k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.11%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,590
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Rose Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,127 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$75	100
216 Shattuck	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,088 (-4%)	2mo	$185,000	$170	80
211 Montview Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-8%)	7mo	$202,000	$195	62
809 Buena Vista St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	6mo	$249,000	$200	62
104 Pico St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+7%)	4mo	$199,900	$166	61
417 B St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+0%)	9mo	$258,900	$229	55
131 Oak St	0.38mi	3/1.0	974 (-14%)	6mo	$205,000	$210	55
314 Philippine St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (-3%)	6mo	$193,000	$176	54
401 F St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+6%)	6mo	$165,000	$138	51
104 E Kern St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+11%)	8mo	$185,000	$148	43
331 D	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,005 (-11%)	8mo	$80,500	$80	42
121 Lucard	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,257 (+12%)	7mo	$165,890	$132	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,061
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $78,079
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93268

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $418	+0% $383	+5% $347	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $323	+0% $383	+5% $442	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $414	base $383	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
553 Front St Taft, CA	2.0	1.0	943	$1,575	$1.67	4d	1	0.40mi
522 Center St Unit D Taft, CA	3.0	1.0	1047	$1,325	$1.27	22d	1	0.59mi
409 A St Taft, CA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	4d	1	0.71mi
620 Graydon Ave Taft, CA	3.0	2.0	1223	$2,475	$2.02	4d	1	1.14mi
209 W Ash St Apt D Taft, CA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,100	$1.05	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 1996-02-15
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥102°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$653
• After-tax cash flow: $3,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taft City
• NCES district ID: 0638700
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,498
• Composite: 31.06/100
• National rank: #11302
• State rank: #946 of 1400 in CA

Livability — South Taft

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1271
• US rank: #26438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Taft, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,963
• Household income: $57,778
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 819.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.10%
• Current HPI: 295.2655
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.62%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1996-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,207 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.