235 Daliah Way

Orange, VA 22960

$399,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,232 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-372/mo
• Annual: $-4,468/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (34.1% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#151 in VA, #4,842 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.