458 E 20th St

Hialeah, FL 33013

$849,999D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,211 sqft · Built 1946 · MultiFamily · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,772/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,422
• Net cashflow: $-246/mo
• Annual: $-2,950/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2.5-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-123/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $807k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $677k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $677k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#288 in FL, #4,774 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $850k implies a 776% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Hialeah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,772/mo this rent would consume 134% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1352% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?