3428 Fortune Dr

Allegany, NY 14706

$209,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,556 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-612/mo
• Annual: $-7,346/yr
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.55%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (51.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (42.7% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (51.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#395 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany-Limestone Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #233 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $209k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.